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Re: India's Software Exports: Mr Aggarwal's likely error
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> The software imports of the software industry are so miniscule in
proportion
> to its exports, that it can be ignored.
-- this almost certainly seems to be an error. Mr. Aggarwal agrees/admits
that most of the software trade may be "virtual" over telecom links.
Company XYZ then may well be "importing" $x million of its own softawre into
India; adding value of $y million to this; and re-exporting it at $x+y
million. This would be eactluy analogous to the diamong trade I mentioned
earlier. Now, I agree Nasscom etc are asserting $x+y million to be
India's "revenues" from software exports, but the basic question remains as
to what the x and y figures are.
As for Mr. Aggarwal's mention of Harvard and McKinsey etc, I have to say
what I have never said on this forum: give us a break!!! (Or alternatively,
what a joke!.... what a laugh~!!!!! Come on! for goodness sake, surely in
this day and age, everyone knows that nonsense can be and is produced
anywhere!)
Subroto Roy
> Most of the data with respect to exports comes from the audited financial
> results, as declared by the companies themselves. As some of these
> companies are listed in US stock exchanges, many leading Wall Street
> investment firms also track and issue research reports on Indian companies
> and the Indian software industry in general. One has to look at the
> credibility of the firm that makes issuing the report. For example,
> McKinsey is the most highly respected consultancy in the world. Ten
percent
> of Harvard's Business School's graduating class, get hired by McKinsey.
The
> Wall St. investment firm, Goldman Sachs, Big Five chartered accounting
firms
> (auditors) are also very reliable.
>
> Also note, that it is extremely difficult to quantify software imports as
> much of the software in circulation is pirated. Secondly, how does one
> quantify the indirect benefits of the imported software. For example,
many
> software companies donate their used computers and software to schools.
>
> The repuation of most of the players - Big Five chartered accountancies,
> Investment Banks, Consultancies, Market Research Firms, Industry
> Publications, Industry Associations - provides a fair degree of assurance
> that the figures are reliable.
>
> How can Policy ignore such data given the enormous implications for
India's
> economy?
>
>
> In the broader context, today, computers and software are analagous to
> "paper and pen".
>
> In the 1980's, American businesses spent an estimated one trillion dollars
> in technology. This investment did not cause any significant increase in
> productivity however, during the 1980's. However, the result of this
> investment in technology was became strikingly evident in the 1990's.
Alan
> Greenspan, attributed America's "Goldilocks" economy and the decade long
> boom (high growth and low inflation) to increased productivity gains
> resulting from corporate investment in technology. Productivity gains are
> expected to accelerate as businesses invest further in technology.
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Dr. Subroto Roy" <sroy@vgsom.iitkgp.ernet.in>
> >Reply-To: debate@indiapolicy.org
> >To: <debate@indiapolicy.org>
> >Subject: Re: India's Software Exports: Mr Aggarwal's good point
> >Date: Tue, 30 Jan 2001 11:18:18 -0800 (PST)
> >
> >---------------------------------------------------------------------
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> >I am obliged to Mr. Aggarwal for his excellent point. In reply to my
> >comment:
> > >
> > > >Cause for doubting it arises from e.g. the data of the
> > > >Centre for Monitoring of the Indian Economy, which is recording
India's
> > >
> > > >software exports in the millions of dollars when Nasscom is doing so
in
> > >
> > > >the
> > > >billions of dollars
> >
> >-- he points out what we had been surmising in any case, namely, that
> >
> > > The CMIE's numbers are based upon shipment of software through a
> > > physical
> > > medium, such as disks. However, these days almost all software
> > > companies
> > > send the software directly over their telecom links.
> > >
> >I fully agree that this is very likely. But then the basic question
> >arises, how on earth is anyone measuring this? In the accounts? Are
> >they measuring the value of software being impliclt imported by the same
> >route? Does anyone know? How can policy be built on such a basis?
> >
> >Subroto Roy
> >
> >
> >
>
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