Re: Draft on Kashmir

["Nayak" <nayak@zdnetmail.co.uk>]

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Please help make the Manifesto better, or accept it, and propagate it!
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Kashmir for the US Secretary of State

						By S.K. Nayak

This is a policy recommendation on Kashmir to the new Secretary of State
who will be appointed in 2001 by either Mr. Bush or Mr. Gore depending on
the outcome of Florida hand count and the decision of courts. An argument
is made here, calling for reinforcement of  the new Administration's
orientation towards South Asia, and, Kashmir in particular.

Breakdown of Track II

After the Kargil war and the Kandahar hijacking of its national air
carrier in 1999 India has refused to discuss any issue with Pakistan until
Islamabad stops support for what India calls "terrorists" and what
Islamabad calls "freedom fighters" in Kashmir. India even denied visas
recently to a group of Pakistani scientists who wanted to attend a meeting
in New Delhi on regional rice cultivation. Incidents of attack on diplomats
and their family members posted at each other's national capitals have
increased over the last several months. There has been a breakdown of
normal diplomatic contacts between the two governments. There's also been a
breakdown of unofficial dialogues between non-officials who are in contact
with their governments. This Track II diplomacy has a definite role in
bringing both the governments closer during last several years. President
Clinton's visit to both the countries in March does not seem to have broken
the ice. Indian Prime Minister's visit to Washington

last month can be seen in the light of strengthening the relations between
two countries, no perceptible move towards resolution of Kashmir crisis
emerged from this visit.

	India has seen this year a flurry of high profile visitors. Mr. Mori came
few months after Mr. Clinton and secured India's participation in a joint
naval exercise in South China Sea much to the discontent of China. Mr.
Putin and Mr. Vajpayee agreed to expand the scope of the relationship
between the two countries. Mr. Bill Gates also came to India to forge an
alliance with a local IT giant. The United States is in a remarkable
position to act decisively with a long-term policy toward the South Asian
balance of power equation. India's growing economy, military power,
enduring democratic institutions coupled with its strategic relationship
with Russia and its less-than-comfortable parleys with China make it an
ideal candidate to strengthen the American interests. India can be a
regional ally who can leverage China. Pakistan is a necessary issue that
must be dealt with in any form of alliance with India. However, stronger
and democratic Pakistan is conducive to India's emergence as a major power,
which in itself is complimentary to the American interests.
Terrorists led by Osama Bin Laden identify the United States and India
among the archenemies of Islam. Support of Taliban to Laden and to send its
terrorists through Pakistan to Kashmir has been mapped for quite some time.
India continues to play an important role in the war against drugs
production and trafficking. She is an ideal partner for the United States
in containment of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to
terrorists' hands and to reduce threats from terrorism.

	Kashmir is an essential and necessary issue in any policy initiative in
South Asia. It is a complex one when compared with other areas such as
Middle East.

Roots of Indo-Pak conflict

	The conflict over Kashmir has its roots in 1947-48, when India and
Pakistan got independence from Britain. Pakistan was created primarily for
the Muslims of British India. Like many other princely states in both
countries, Jammu and Kashmir was not a part of the British India. These
states were to choose between joining India and Pakistan, taking into
account geographical proximity as well as their religious makeup. The Hindu
ruler of the predominantly Muslim state of Jammu and Kashmir initially
wanted to pursue a path of independent statehood, but sought military
protection from India when invaders from Pakistan occupied his state. India
dispatched military help to deal with the Pakistanis. The Maharaja of Jammu
and Kashmir acceded to India immediately after arrival of military help.
Pakistan considered the accession as illegal. It occupied a part of the
Kashmir state. At the time, India said that Kashmir's accession would be
conditional, promising the United Nations that a plebiscite would be held
to determine the wishes of the Kashmiri people. To date
that vote has not been held, as India argued that Pakistan first had to
vacate its portion of Kashmir and that the Simla agreement with Pakistan
concluded in 1972 provided a new mechanism for settling the dispute.
Neither India nor Pakistan wants an independent Kashmir, which may be the
wish of many in Kashmir. Part of Jammu and Kashmir in Ladakh area has been
occupied by China after its victory in the 1962 war with India. Pakistan
has ceded a small part of its Kashmir to China. India and Pakistan have
fought four wars over Kashmir including the Kargil war of 1999 after both
the countries had gone nuclear in 1998.

It's about Core Values

	Kashmir is a complex issue, not just about real estate and populations,
but due to competing core values: India as a democratic, secular state and
Pakistan as an Islamic homeland where democracy gets throttled every now
and then by military rulers and fundamentalists of rabid variety.
Pakistan's involvement with the Taliban in Afghanistan is a matter of
concern not only for India but also for US, Russia and the Central Asian
Republics. Pakistani Army's role in foisting terrorism in Kashmir and
abetting drug trafficking has been common knowledge for several years.
People of Indian part of Kashmir enjoy all the fundamental rights
guaranteed under the Indian Constitution and have participated in various
electoral processes, though electoral malpractices by various political
parties is a source of grievance among Kashmiris. The crisis in Kashmir is
ultimately a crisis of democracy.

Till recently American policy toward India and Pakistan was shaped by the
Cold War. After the departure of the Soviets from Afghanistan in 1989 the
dominant American policy has been one of preventing the two countries from
going nuclear. On several occasions during the last decade America
intervened to resolve regional crises, the most recent one during the
Kargil War last year.

There has been no broad U.S. initiative on Kashmir since the early 1960s.
India strongly resents any input of any outside power in Kashmir crisis.
Pakistanis want outside mediation in the dispute. Islamabad wants a
plebiscite to be held in Kashmir with the options of either choosing
Pakistan or not. India considers Kashmir its integral part and strongly
objects to any outside mediation. India has suggested the resolution of the
matter through the Simla Agreement with Pakistan. Lack of flexibility in
Pakistan's policy towards Kashmir is echoed in India's path to follow a
path of consistent increase in the level of security forces in Kashmir.
Recent initiatives by India to talk to terrorist groups has not led to any
definite results but has forced the ruling political party in Kashmir to
demand regional autonomy from India and thereby further complicating the
options before India.

Recent Events

Mr. Putin during his recently concluded state visit to India has attempted
to reinvigorate Russia's partnership with India, as it had declined over
the 1990s. He offered unqualified support for a permanent seat for India on
the UN Security Council. He declared Russian support for the Indian
position against foreign interference in Kashmir. Russia is the only member
of the nuclear club cooperating with India on nuclear energy matters.
Despite unrelenting US pressure Russia has pressed ahead with plans to
build two nuclear power reactors at Koodankulam, Tamil Nadu, India. Putin's
visit to India's Bhabha Atomic Research Center at Trombay directly related
to this construction project and reflects Russia's preparedness to provide
further aid. Indian armed forces depend heavily on Russia, which provides
up to 70% of India's material.

India has taken steps, during last few weeks, to normalize its relations
with Iraq by sending a Minster of State to Baghdad for resumption of
civilian air services between the two countries.

In the US Indian-Americans play an important role in the New Economy. The
Republican campaign has not faired too well in enlisting the support of
this part of the electorate. If Mr. Bush occupies the White House, it is
not clear if the Democrats can hold on to the support of Indian-Americans.
A definite policy of republicans towards India is a sure way to endear this
community

Options

	Kashmir provides an ideal opportunity to US to play an important role in
the South Asia. Three broad options are presented here.
	First, the US does not get involved in the Kashmir imbroglio, but
furthers its trade interests. This option is not compatible with America's
role as a hegemon. It has a role in prevention of nuclear war and its
associated problems in South Asia. A more important concern is preventing
both India and Pakistan from transferring their nuclear technology to
undesirable hands.

	Second, the US should maintain a comfortable distance from the Kashmir
crisis in public, but adopts a posture of publicly exhorting both countries
to resume their dialogue on Kashmir. India needs to be encouraged in its
efforts to talk to various groups of insurgents. Washington should
privately but actively work towards a resumption of talks, perhaps by
serving as an informal channel of communication between Delhi and Islamabad
and providing technical inputs to both countries for facilitating their talks.

Third approach is to break the Kashmir conflict into a number of issues
where progress can possibly be achieved without touching upon the core
problem of plebiscite that defies immediate solution and results in
deadlock and escalation of skirmishes. These issues include a reduction of
incidents across the Line of Control, withdrawal of forces from the frozen
wastes of the Siachin Glacier, and improving economic ties between both
parts of Kashmir. US can facilitate these issues and can offer technical
assistance for avoiding any unpredictable activity in Siachin or across the
Line of Control. The Administration at Capitol Hill should reinforce its
focus on South Asia. Coordination activities in the State Department should
not attempt to mediate the dispute, but aim at harmonizing American
policies with those of other Departments, serve as a clearinghouse for
ideas and policies, and promote and facilitate Track II diplomacy. A
well-defined focus in coordination activities will convey the seriousness
of the Administration towards the issue that may see
several Administrations before any definite progress is made. Beginnings
have been made and the case is for deepening it without offending either of
the contending parties.

The way forward

A recommendation is made in favor of the last two options to be pursued
simultaneously. The Indo-US joint working group on terrorism has met
several times after Clinton's visit to South Asia. India has to realize
that a stronger and stable Pakistan will only support India's dreams of
becoming a major player in world affairs. Kashmir holds the key to that.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the National Debate on System Reform.       debate@indiapolicy.org
Rules, Procedures, Archives:            ../debate/
-------------------------------------------------------------------------